3G in China: Coming to you Right After Peace Breaks Out in the Middle East

In the Hutong
Admiring the monochrome sky
1338 hrs.

Fons is quoting the Shanghai Daily quoting the prognosticators at Norson Telecom Consulting that 3G licenses will not be issued until the summer of 2007.

Okay class, new exercise.

1. Buy a copy of Samuel Beckett’s play Waiting for Godot.

2. Cross out the word “Godot” everywhere in the play, replacing it with “3G in China.”

The ugly truth is that the window of opportunity for 3G in China may be closing while we wait for the guys at Datang and Siemens to make TD-SCDMA market ready.

Over the next two years we’re going to start hearing more about fourth-generation (4G) mobile technologies, and while neither of the current offerings (WiMax and OFDM) look ready to upgrade/replace cellular, there is no lack of companies trying to come up with order-of-magnitude improvements over 3G. Indeed, Sprint is already going to give WiMax a go.

At what point will China’s carriers simply say “bag it. We’ve waited this long, we’re waiting for The Next Thing?”

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About David Wolf

An adviser to corporations and organizations on strategy, communications, and public affairs, David Wolf has been working and living in Beijing since 1995, and now divides his time between China and California. He also serves as a policy and industry analyst focused on innovative and creative industries, a futurist, and an amateur historian.
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